US/Israel attacking Iran since early March 2026. Khamenei died ~Feb 28. War spreading — US evacuating Saudi staff. Iran rejecting ceasefire. Strait of Hormuz closed (95¢ on Kalshi).

Bull case: Hormuz stays closed → oil $120-150+ → leveraged ETFs 3-10x → Polymarket YES contracts pay $1 each → options explode → portfolio hits $50-100K

Bear case: Ceasefire / Hormuz reopens → oil crashes to $70 → positions lose 60-80%. Max loss = $2,025 (amount deposited, no margin).

Edge: Resolution criteria arbitrage (most bettors don't read fine print), cross-platform price gaps (10-19¢ Kalshi vs Poly), and leverage stacking (3x ETFs + options on options).

Round 1: $2,025 → $5-8K (Polymarket oil resolutions + Alpaca gains)

Round 2: $5-8K → $20-30K (Roll into deep OTM options, new Poly markets)

Round 3: $20-30K → $100K (Concentrated options plays on confirmed moves)

• Max 40% of portfolio in single position (Kelly criterion 0.5)

• Only BUY — no shorts, no naked options, no margin

• Max loss = deposited capital ($2,025)

• PDT rule: 3 day trades per 5 days (Alpaca under $25K)

• Auto-exit: ceasefire confirmed → sell oil. Hormuz reopens → trim leveraged.

• Compound ALL resolved winnings immediately